(WGHP) — The NCAA men's basketball tournament has been narrowed down to four teams with the two Final Four games scheduled for Saturday.
First up, the top-seeded University of Kansas's Jayhawks will play second-seeded Villanova University's Wildcats.
Then, we'll see a matchup of what some would call college basketball's most iconic rivalry: North Carolina's own Duke University Blue Devils and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Tar Heels.
For fans of the sport, there are a lot of bragging rights on the line, but for some, there's a whole lot of money on the line too.
Note: Online sports betting remains illegal in North Carolina, but the state does permit in-person sports betting at two tribal casinos in western North Carolina.
What are the sportsbooks saying?
Vegas Insider put together a chart showing five online sportsbooks to compare the championship odds.
Duke Blue Devils
+156 / +160 / +155 / +155 / +155
While the online statistical analysis site FiveThirtyEight believes Kansas is most likely to win it all (see below), that's not what the sportsbooks are saying. They're putting their money on Duke.
Three of the sportsbooks agree (and one disagrees very, very slightly) that Duke has about a 39.22% chance to win it all. One of the books is ever-so-slightly less confident in the Blue Devils, putting them at a 39.06% chance. The outlier places the team at 38.46%.
Kansas Jayhawks
+181 / +180 / +180 / +185 / +180
They may be FiveThirtyEight's favorite to win, but the sportsbooks rank Kansas as the second most likely to win it all.
Three sportsbooks put Kansas at a 35.71% chance to win with the other two slightly less optimistic at 35.59% and 35.09%.
While their chances may be a few percentage points below Duke, they're still well ahead of both Villanova and UNC.
Villanova Wildcats
+481 / +500 / +500 / +450 / +475
If you're a Wildcats fan, I'd just take a moment to be grateful that you're in the Final Four.
Two sportsbooks put Villanova at a measly 16.67% chance to win the tournament. While the other three are higher, it's not by much. The other three books have the Wildcats at 17.21%, 17.39% and, the most optimistic, 18.18%.
UNC Tarheels
+493 / +475 / +500 / +500 / +500
FiveThirtyEight says a UNC tournament victory is slightly more likely if they end up in the final with Villanova, but the odds of that happening are pretty slim. The sportsbooks, however, say Villanova's got better odds to walk away with the trophy than UNC.
Three of the sportsbooks put UNC at 16.67% while only two sportsbooks put Villanova at those low odds.
One gives UNC a 16.86% chance and another gives them a 17.39% chance.
What is FiveThirtyEight saying?
The website FiveThirtyEight may be best known for its work crunching the data for big races and votes in the political world, but it also breaks down the outlook in the sports world.
Here are the numbers that FiveThirtyEight is putting behind the four remaining teams.
The Final Four
Duke University is favored (62%) to beat UNC Chapel Hill.
Kansas is favored (69%) to beat Villanova.
The Championship
If both of the Final Four games go as predicted, we'll see an NCAA men's basketball championship battle of Duke versus Kansas.
If Kansas and Duke make it to the final, Kansas is favored (55%) to win.
But let's just say for the sake of arguing that UNC beats Duke. And let's say that Kansas still beats Villanova.
If Kansas and UNC make it to the final, Kansas is favored (64%) to win.
What about the inverse? What if Duke defeats UNC, but Villanova topples Kansas?
If Villanova and Duke make it to the final, Duke is favored (60%) to win.
If there's anything you should take away from this, it's that we're not likely to see two upsets in Final Four, but if we do, I've got some good news for North Carolinians.
If Villanova and UNC make it to the final, UNC is favored (51%) to win.
0 Comments