RALEIGH, N.C. (WGHP) – We have another new draw on congressional districts from the North Carolina Senate, and it's a dramatic departure from the models reviewed and eschewed by the Senate Redistricting Committee on Wednesday.
That map, which the state House later said it was reviewing as its preferred map, had included some sprawling districts, and observers had suggested it would give the GOP no more than a 9-5 edge in representation and perhaps provide Democrats with a chance at a 7-7 split because of two nearly even districts.
Asher Hilldebrand, a professor at Duke and former Democratic operative, wrote on his Twitter that this map is the most competitive he's seen but that it still could give the Republicans a 10-4 edge in Washington.
"The NCGOP has been literally all over the map with these congressional districts, but this is a smart play for them," Hilldebrand wrote. "More competitive overall (with four true swing districts), probably 8/6 R in a "normal" year, but easily 10/4 R in a good R year … e.g. 2022."
This map makes another significant change to representation across the Piedmont Triad and redraws the sprawling 5th District had stretched from the Tennessee border to Chapel Hill, which some in Orange County had decried.
Guilford County was sliced into two districts once again -- the first Senate map kept it whole -- and packaged with a variety of other counties, some of which it has little apparent relationship.
The 6th District, where Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) is the incumbent, includes about 3/4ths of the county, along with all of Randolph, Chatham, Lee and Harnett counties. It also contains a small western piece of Rockingham County and a southern slice of Alamance County.
The rest of Guilford County, which would include High Point, Oak Ridge, Summerfield and Stokesdale, would be part of the 8th District and packaged with northern Davidson County and all of Rowan and Cabarrus counties. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Concord) would be the incumbent there.
That 5th District, where Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk) is the incumbent, would lose that hook into Orange but pick up all of Forsyth County and a small northwestern piece of Yadkin County. It lost that small slice of Rockingham. It still includes Stokes, Surry, Alleghany, Ashe, Wilkes and Watauga counties.
The Supreme Court on Feb. 4 had ordered new maps because those approved in November by lawmakers were created with extreme partisan gerrymandering designed to give Republicans expanded or cemented control in Washington and Raleigh. These maps will have to be submitted to a 3-judge panel in Wake County Superior Court and then to the North Carolina Superior Court for approval before they can be implemented.
Lawmakers have a deadline of Friday to submit their redraws. Both chambers must approve a congressional map, and the Senate must past its own districts. Those votes are scheduled for today if maps can get past committee. The House approved its districts on Wednesday night.
Some other highlights from the new map released this morning:
- The 10th District would include almost all Davie, Iredell, Alexander, Caldwell, Avery, Burke, Catawba and Lincoln counties, along with most of Yadkin and a small piece of McDowell. Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Denver) would be the incumbent. Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) is running for the U.S. Senate.
- The southern portion of Davidson County would be part of a meandering 9th District that would include all of Montgomery, Stanly, Union, Anson, Moore, Richmond, Scotland, Hoke, Burke counties and some of Columbus County. Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) told The News & Observer that, if this map holds, he would run in the 9th District, which includes some of his current territory.
- Most of Alamance County would be in the 4th District with all of Caswell, Person, Person, Orange and Durham counties and a majority of Granville County. Incumbent Rep. David Price (D-Durham) is retiring.
- A 2-way split of Mecklenburg County would place Rep. Alma Adams (D-Charlotte) as the incumbent in the 12th and slice off a southwestern piece into the 14th, which is the area where Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-Hendersonville) had indicated he would run under the original maps, rather than in the 11th District, where he is the incumbent. House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland) also had considered running in this district.
- Wake County would be divided into two pieces, with it's southern portion grouped with counties south of the Triangle to form the 13th District. The rest is in the 2nd District.
Why this happened
This process and the court review began when a 3-judge panel in Wake County Superior Court in early January had ruled that the legislature was guilty of extreme partisan gerrymandering but that, essentially, the state constitution gave lawmakers the responsibility to draw the maps and partisan gerrymandering wasn’t defined and couldn’t be addressed.
Supreme Court Justices, in a 4-3 decision along partisan lines, granted the appeal filed by the North Carolina League of Conservation Voters, the Harper group of plaintiffs and Common Cause and gave lawmakers until Friday to produce maps for review by the Wake County Superior Court panel of judges who first handled this case.
Next steps
That court then would pass along these maps to the Supreme Court by Feb. 23 for final approval. Justices last week said they would appoint a special master to oversee this process and requested nominations for that role from all interested parties, but there has been no name announced.
With the maps in motion again, candidate filing is scheduled to resume at 8 a.m. on Feb. 24 and continue through March 5, with the primary election now scheduled for May 17. There has been speculation those dates could move – the legislature voted to do so, but Gov. Roy Cooper vetoed that measure – but the courts have not addressed that aspect.
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