Tracking the Tropics: When will Tropical Storm Elsa reach Florida?

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) -- All eyes are on Tropical Storm Elsa this holiday weekend as the system moves through the Caribbean Sea and toward Florida.

A tropical storm watch has already been issued for the Florida Keys, due to the risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge and rainfall impacts. But the National Hurricane Center stresses that uncertainty in Elsa's forecast remains larger than usual because the system still has to potentially interact with Cuba.

As of 11 a.m. ET, Elsa was about 50 north of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm has slowed down a bit and is now moving at about 13 mph to the west-northwest.

Tropical Storm Elsa: What impacts could Tampa Bay see?

According to the NHC, Elsa is expected to make a turn to the northwest Sunday night or Monday. The storm is forecast to move near Jamaica and parts of eastern Cuba Sunday before moving across central and western Cuba on Monday. Elsa is then expected to move toward the Florida Straits and move near or over parts of Florida's west coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest NHC advisory shows Elsa is holding steady as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The storm could strengthen slightly later on Sunday as it approaches Cuba, but is then expected to weaken as it moves over the island. Once it emerges off Cuba, over the Florida Straits and the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the system could re-strengthen slightly.

According to the NHC, tropical storm conditions and rainfall impacts could start on the Florida peninsula as soon as Monday night and last through Wednesday before reaching the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas on Wednesday and Thursday.

The following watches and warnings have been issued for Elsa:

Hurricane Watch:

• Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Santiago de Cuba

Tropical Storm Warning:

• Southern part of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
• Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara and Cienfuegos
• Jamaica

Tropical Storm Watch:

• Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
• The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque and Havana
• The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

Tracking the Tropics will stream live updates as Elsa approaches the U.S. Watch live at 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. ET on Sunday.